AHRI Quarterly Australian Work Outlook -Summary of Findings
1 The AHRI Net Employment Intentions Index, which measures the difference between the proportion of employers that expect to increase staff levels and those that expect to decrease staff levels decreased to +39 in the March quarter of 2025. While this is in line with the historical average for the survey, it represents a cooling from +44 in the December 2024 quarter. The decrease has been driven by a relatively strong fall in employment-intention expectations in the public sector, which have fallen from +57 to +40 during the same period.
2 42% of organisations intent to increase staff levels in the March 2-25 quarter, compared with just 3% that anticipate reducing the size of their workforce over the same period.
3 64% of organisations plan to recruit staff in the March quarter of 2025, slightly down on the figure recorded for the December quarter (67%).
4 23% of employees intend to make some staff redundant this quarter - slightly lower than in the December 2024 quarter.
5 30% of organisations are experiencing recruitment difficulties in the March 2025 quarter. This equals the lowest level for recruitment difficulties recorded in any of AHRIs surveys.
6 The 12-month average employee turnover to the end of December 2024 was 16%, unchanged from the previous quarter.
7 Around a third (34%) of organisations reported that total annual average employee turnover is 20% and above.
8 The survey data shows that the most frequent reason for employees leaving organisations is excessive workload, which is cited by 26% of employers. This is followed by unattractiveness of the role (21%), conflict or poor workplace relationships (21%) and too few learning and development opportunities (19%).
9 The measures used most frequently by employers to help retrain staff are increased learning and development opportunities (36%), enhanced flexible working arrangements (36%), and improved support for employee wellbeing (36%).
10 Employers reported that the mean basic pay increase in their organisation (excluding bonuses) is expected to be 3% for the 12 months to January 2026, up from 2.7% for the 12 months to October 2025.
11 More than two thirds (69%) of organisations deliberately exclude people with certain characteristics when recruiting staff. The most disadvantaged groups are those with a history of drug or alcohol dependency (38%), those with a criminal record (36%), those with a history of mental illness (25%) and those with a history of long-term sickness (24%).
12 The most frequently utilised recruitment steps used by employers are CV reviews (52%), skills-based interviews (50%), and qualification checks (49%).
13 According to survey respondents, on average, 16% of employees are perceived to be "not fully proficient" in their job.
14 Nearly 6 in 10 (58%) employers say training investments will increase at their organisation in the next 12 months, compared with 29% who report that it will remain the same.
15 Employers are using overseas workers to ease skills shortages and recruitment difficulties in their local Australian labour markets. The most important reason for employing overseas workers is an inadequate supply of applicants from the domestic workforce who have the right skills or qualifications (33%). The second most important reason is to recruit experienced workers because they cannot find local candidates with the right experience (30%).
Employment Outlook
In the March quarter of 2025, 64% of organisations plan to hire staff.
23% of employers expect to make workers redundant in the March 2025 quarter.
The average employee turnover in Australian workplaces is 16%
The most frequent reason for leaving organisations is excessive workload cited by 26% of employers
Unattractiveness of the role (21%)
Conflict or poor workplace relationships (21%)
Too few learning and development opportunities (19%)
There is still significant internal skills challenges and shortages.
16% of employees were perceived as not proficient in their roles.
Wages Outlook
The mean basic pay increase in organisations is expected to be 3% in the 12 months to January 2026.
93% of organisations report the have a training budget.
58% of employers say that skills investment will increase at their organisation over the next 12 months.
This highlights a commitment from organisations to reinvest back in their people through mechanisms other than wage increases.
15% of employers say that they are going to focus on leadership and management training.
11% on generative AI skills
10% on interpersonal skills
10% on project management skills.
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